Projected PrizePicks Fantasy Score per hitter — season-anchored, recent-form blended. No sportsbook posts an FS market, so there is no fair line to grade against: compare the projection to the FS line PrizePicks shows you.
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New here? Three numbers decide every pick
Edge = model hit% − market %, in points. Positive = underpriced.
Hit % is calibrated to what the model actually delivers.
Tiers: LOCK > ELITE > STRONG > WATCH > AVOID.
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Min edge
1.5pp
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How to read the board
Edge (pp)
Model hit% minus market %, in points. Positive = the books are underpricing it.
Hit %
Calibrated probability — deflated to the model's realized accuracy.
Model vs Market
The two bars. Model > Market = the book is underpricing the over.
Line → Proj
Book line vs model projection — the calibrated hit% is the honest number.
No-vig fair vs the best price per game. BUY marks the value side.
Break-even
A 2-leg Power pays 3× — each leg needs ~57.7% to break even.
Kelly stake
Bet size from bankroll × edge — fractional Kelly, capped.
MLB player props
Batter props (HR · hits · total bases · RBI) from tonight's slate. Powered by Baseball Savant expected-stats regression, park factors, opposing-pitcher matchups, Poisson hit-prob for rare counts (HR/RBI), de-vigged consensus from the paid Odds API, and season-regressed projections so hot streaks don't inflate picks.
Tap Scan MLB to pull tonight's batter props.
Top opportunities
Open this tab and tap Refresh slate to load the day's top picks.
Recommended parlay
Top parlay strategies + alternative legs from tonight's slate. Pre-filtered for low confidence, weak matchups, and same-game correlation. Each build auto-saves and grades itself after games finish.
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Bankroll
$
DAILY DISCIPLINE GUARD
Model diagnostics form · your results
Your actual results · all placed tickets
🏆 System's past picks
Auto-resolved after games finish. Shows how the system's calls would have performed regardless of whether you bet them.
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🔴 Live leg tracker
In-game status for legs in your PENDING tickets. Polls every 30s while games are live.
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📋 My past parlays
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Money lines
Fair = no-vig win % across US books. BUY = the value side (green edge = the book is overpaying). + adds to the parlay builder.
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Parlay builder
Legs
0
Parlay odds
—
No-vig fair
—
Edge
—
Add sides with + — odds, fair and edge update live. One side per game.
Game Sim
4,000 Monte Carlo runs per game (team scoring × opposing staff × home edge). Experimental — graded nightly vs real finals next to the no-vig fair; it earns a say in BUY only if it proves sharper over 100+ games.
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Legs
0
Avg edge
—
Best parlay EV
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Best hit prob
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Add legs
Copy a slate from PrizePicks or Underdog and paste below. Recognized formats:
Aaron Judge 1.5 Total Bases · A. Judge · 1.5 TB · Aaron Judge | Total Bases | 1.5
Pool
Build & track parlay
Pick legs from your pool to combine into a real parlay. Live EV, hit chance, and risk warnings. Save to track it in your history.
Add legs to your pool above. They'll appear here as selectable chips.
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Legs
0
Joint hit
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Payout
—
EV / $
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Top parlays by EV
Trends & Movers
Hot, cold, and where the model disagrees with the market tonight.
Run a scan on the board to populate trends.
Bankroll & Kelly
drives the stake recommendation on every scan card
Set bankroll above to see Kelly stakes on scan cards.
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Saved slates
Today's Matchups
auto · every hitter vs the opposing starter
Every hitter vs today's probable starter, from Statcast. TB 1.5 — passes on coin flips.
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Custom Matchup
any batter vs any pitcher
Pick a batter and a pitcher, then Evaluate.
Track Record
is it actually working?
Every lean graded against the real box score — hit rate vs the 52.4% break-even.