Verity Props

Slate Analysis

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MLB player props

Batter props (HR · hits · total bases · RBI) from tonight's slate. Same engine as NBA, upgraded: Baseball Savant expected-stats regression, park factors, Poisson hit-prob for rare counts (HR/RBI), de-vigged consensus from the paid Odds API, and season-regressed projections so hot streaks don't inflate picks.

Tap Scan MLB to pull tonight's batter props.

Top opportunities

Open this tab and tap Refresh slate to load the day's top picks.

Recommended parlay

Top 3 parlay strategies + alternative legs from tonight's slate. Pre-filtered for leaks, minutes risk, low confidence, and same-game correlation. Each build auto-saves and grades itself after games finish.

Tap Build picks to generate tonight's top recommendations.

Bankroll

$

Raw model

DAILY DISCIPLINE GUARD

Loss limit $ Max tickets

Model diagnostics form · CLV · calibration · your results

🏆 System's past picks

Auto-resolved after games finish. Shows how the system's calls would have performed regardless of whether you bet them.

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📋 My past parlays

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Money lines

Fair = no-vig win % across US books. BUY = the value side (green edge = the book is overpaying). + adds to the parlay builder.

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Parlay builder

Legs

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Parlay odds

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No-vig fair

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Edge

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Add sides with + — odds, fair and edge update live. One side per game.

Legs

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Avg edge

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Best parlay EV

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Best hit prob

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Add legs

Copy a slate from PrizePicks or Underdog and paste below. Recognized formats: Luka Dončić 32.5 Points · L. Dončić · 32.5 PTS · Luka Dončić | Points | 32.5

Pool

Build & track parlay

Pick legs from your pool to combine into a real parlay. Live EV, hit chance, and risk warnings. Save to track it in your history.

Add legs to your pool above. They'll appear here as selectable chips.

No legs selected yet.

Stake ($) Type Book

Legs

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Joint hit

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Payout

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EV / $

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Top parlays by EV

Book Size Min EV % Show

Trends & Movers

Who's heating up, who's cooling off, and where the model most disagrees with the market — from tonight's slate.

Run a scan on the board to populate trends.

Bankroll & Kelly

drives the stake recommendation on every scan card

Bankroll ($) Kelly fraction Max stake per leg ($)

Set bankroll above to see Kelly stakes on scan cards.

Lineups by book

tracked legs grouped by PrizePicks vs Underdog vs other

No tracked legs yet.

Performance & learning

Open Profile to load tracked outcomes.

Equity curve

cumulative simulated $ at flat $10/leg — is the system actually making money, not just feeling smart?

No resolved bets yet.

Bet-pattern leak detector

your losing patterns at a glance — categories where you're hitting under 45% should be faded or skipped.

Need ≥8 resolved bets to detect patterns reliably.

System trust per player

how well the model has predicted each player's bets — overconfident players auto-shrink more, underrated push less.

Need ≥3 resolved bets per player. Resolve more legs to populate.

All calibrated players

every player the model has a calibration read on — predicted vs actual hit rate, with the drift and verdict. Search to find anyone.

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Why this lost — post-mortem

auto-diagnoses each losing leg as model error, minutes volatility, or just variance. Tells you which losses to learn from.

No resolved losses yet.

Closing-line value (CLV)

the only honest measure of betting skill — independent of variance, did you take the side the line moved toward?

No resolved bets with line snapshots yet.

Learning insights

the deeper signals — realized parlay correlation, over/under drift, minutes accuracy, injury-flag accuracy, and CLV on the system's own recommended picks.

Open Profile to load insights.

Calibration plot — your prediction vs reality

If your model is well-calibrated, the dots fall on the diagonal: when you predict 70% hit, you should hit 70% of the time. Dots above the line = under-confident (you hit more than you predict). Below = over-confident (you miss more than you predict).

Edge distribution

Saved slates